I had a conversation with my friend last week and this is what we discussed..
The best posture towards China geopolitically is to consolidate the gains in the West under an umbrella, the crux of which would be the dollar and the US military. Vermont or California joining Canada would be a horrible idea, it would fuel a rivalry and extend the right/left divide between us. If the United States increases it’s area and strength diplomatically it would calm tensions about rising power in the East, because our GDP and power base would increase dramatically and therefore the jealousy of Chinese commercial success would be tempered. This gives other western nations the opportunity to claim Superpower status, and as it stands China has the power to triangulate between individual nations. A shared empire of citizen states could offer a common language (or second language) to enable the insinuation of cultures and the ability to organise interstate political coalitions, which bring people together naturally in a fun competitive spirit! All of Central and South America, Australia, Greenland, and Canada would be a great start for this good-willed, peaceful project. In accordance with this model, maybe Javier Milei or Nigel Farage could run for president of the US. Although this is fantastical it can plausibly be disseminated as an idea using popular media and political capital. I can see a video of Tijuana border regions flowering into a robust economic and cultural hub. I imagine this is what we should have done with those $30 trillion but instead we used it to pay for people to sit home and do nothing.
Many commercial sectors would also strongly resist the suffocating demands of US justice and tax policy, as well as political regimes reliant on tactics frowned upon by the USA. All the burocratic and regulatory mumbo jumbo would rankle nations reliant on a more relaxed culture, (ie, building standards) as well as provide fuel for a nasty resistance to a potential economic and security windfall. Unfortunately many “minor powers” are used to hearing lectures and ultimatums from an unrealistic bunch of burocrats in America.
China
The US is in a quagmire diplomatically about Taiwan, having accepted the “One China” policy but now faced with regional tensions and cyberattacks. This Taiwan question holds the keys to many of the warlike behaviors between China/US. Trump should negotiate a major settlement of the regional disputes in a summit with Asian nations during which the Taiwan question will likely be a sore topic due to its militarisation and flash point status. The US will likely have to broker and administer a normalisation of Tawain if the conditions of a territorial treaty are met. Another concession I see as inevitable is an acceptance of North Korea having nuclear weapons. I don’t see North Korea ever giving up Nukes, but perhaps they can be left to rust in silos. American territorial expansion is a key factor in the ingredients of giving concessions geopolitically, but if it doesn't happen, I foresee concessions happening at some point anyways. The US does risk losing a postural advantage in the region if Asian relations are “normalised”, and China may decide to not budge on the “9 dash line”, however, I believe a real normalization is very possible while strengthening the US position dramatically. Americans are leery about China and vice versa. Tit for tat subversive acts can’t weigh heavily on chipped shoulders in a clear eyed analysis of the situation. It’s natural to incline towards the offensive towards China after the butting of heads on the seas, but they literally can build an entire home for $100 (learned that on Instagram), as we sink further into a housing crisis. The wiki list of treaties in Europe through the ages includes hundreds of treaty’s, yet how many treaties have we concluded with China? There wasn’t even one after the Korean War!
The US is in a quagmire diplomatically about Taiwan, having accepted the “One China” policy but now faced with regional tensions and cyberattacks. This Taiwan question holds the keys to many of the warlike behaviors between China/US. Trump should negotiate a major settlement of the regional disputes in a summit with Asian nations during which the Taiwan question will likely be a sore topic due to its militarisation and flash point status. The US will likely have to broker and administer a normalisation of Tawain if the conditions of a territorial treaty are met. Another concession I see as inevitable is an acceptance of North Korea having nuclear weapons. I don’t see North Korea ever giving up Nukes, but perhaps they can be left to rust in silos. American territorial expansion is a key factor in the ingredients of giving concessions geopolitically, but if it doesn't happen, I foresee concessions happening at some point anyways. The US does risk losing a postural advantage in the region if Asian relations are “normalised”, and China may decide to not budge on the “9 dash line”, however, I believe a real normalization is very possible while strengthening the US position dramatically. Americans are leery about China and vice versa. Tit for tat subversive acts can’t weigh heavily on chipped shoulders in a clear eyed analysis of the situation. It’s natural to incline towards the offensive towards China after the butting of heads on the seas, but they literally can build an entire home for $100 (learned that on Instagram), as we sink further into a housing crisis. The wiki list of treaties in Europe through the ages includes hundreds of treaty’s, yet how many treaties have we concluded with China? There wasn’t even one after the Korean War!
China's territorial claims called the "9 Dash Line" which must be amended
I support the US reciprocating power in the East, but it will only get more costly and contentious for both nations in the absence of a practical deal which involves concessions on both sides.
Thank you for reading, this article echos many of my still relevant ideas of old. Hopefully we can enter the age of soft power after all the conflicts in the world are resolved by diplomacy and right-minded efforts.